Scenario: You are still a consultant for the Excellent Consulting Group. You have completed the first assignment, developing and testing a forecasting method based on linear regression (Case 3). However, your consulting manager at ECG wants to go the next step and investigate another forecasting method. It is important to do a thorough job for the client, and you have the expertise to analyze different forecasting methods. You have decided to look at the sales data for client’s lottery app as a single data set and use a time series analysis, namely SES, single exponential smoothing.
Case Assignment
Using Excel, use the forecasted sales (select tab on bottom) from Case 3 to compute the MAPE, by doing the following:
1. Find the MAPE for the first 12 months (assume the forecast for Month 1 – or January – is equal to January’s actual sales). To find the MAPE, you will need to compare actual sales for each month, or Y(t), to forecasted sales, or F(t).
2. Next, forecast the sales for the next three months (Feb – Apr), and compute the MAPE for this 3-month period. Compare this 3-month MAPE to the MAPE you calculated for the SES analysis (Case 4).
Then write a report to your boss that briefly describes the results that you obtained. Make a final recommendation on which method to use, SES or Linear Regression.
Paper should include two files: (1) An Excel file; and (2) A Word document.
Data: See attachment with data that I previously have and generated from your analyses in Case 3.
Assignment Expectations
Analysis
• Accurate and complete SES analysis in Excel.
Written Report: (Use Heading for paragraphs)
• Length requirements = 4 pages minimum (not including Cover and Reference pages)
• Provide a brief introduction/ background of the problem.
• Complete and accurate Excel analysis.
• Written analysis that supports Excel analysis, and provides thorough discussion of assumptions, rationale, and logic used.
• Complete, meaningful, and accurate recommendation(s).
* Note: See attachments with Case 3- Data for assignment and complete instructions. Paper should include two files: (1) An Excel file; and (2) A Word document.
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