Get a unique, high-quality and non-plagiarized paper from us today at the most affordable price
Email us : premieredtutorials@gmail.com

## Information Management for Decision Making

Tanaka, Ichiro operates a garage near Sannomiya. He has just been offered the
opportunity to install a car wash at the highly discounted cost of Yen 2,000,000. This
exceptional offer, however, is only available if he accepts it within one week. If he does,
he will charge Yen1300 per car washed. Labor and materials will cost Yen300 per car
washed. Ichiro expects that monthly demand for car wash will be about 100 cars. A major
uncertainty is whether or not his competitor, Kirei Garage and Auto Repair, will also
install their own car wash. If Kirei Garage does, then Ichiro expects the demand for his
car wash will be halved. Ichiro figures that there is a 20% chance that Kirei Garage will
install their car wash very soon, in which case Ichiro and Kirei Garage would split
demand for the next 12 months; a 30% chance that Kirei will install their car wash in
about 6 months, in which case Ichiro would have the full demand for 6 months and split it
with Kirei afterwards; and a 50% chance that Kirei will not install a car wash at all.
Furthermore, Ichiro’s accountant estimates that the value of the car wash after the first 12
months is Yen 2,500,000 in the absence of competition, and Yen 1,000,000 if Kirei has
installed their own car wash.
(a) (12 points)
Construct a decision tree to represent Ichiro’s problem. Be sure to properly label all
branches, and to include all relevant probabilities and payoffs.
(b) (5 points)
Find the best strategy for Ichiro, assuming the Expected Monetary Value (EMV) criterion.
What is the EMV of this strategy?
(c) (5 points)
Is EMV an appropriate decision criterion for Ichiro in such a situation? Why, or why not?
(d) (8 points)
If the monthly demand was smaller or bigger than 100, would your recommendation
change? For which values of monthly demand should Ichiro choose to have the car wash
installed? Assume that he uses the EMV criterion and that all other data are as originally
stated.
Suppose that, at last, Tanaka, Ichiro opened the car wash referenced in Problem 1 and
Kirie Garage did not. Now, Ichiro has to decide the price p that he will charge his
customers for washing their cars because he is not sure if Yen1300 is the right one. In
order to do that, he improved the model he had before (described in Problem 1). Namely,
for a certain price p, he assumes that the monthly demand is a normal random variable
with mean 100 – p and constant standard deviation equal to 10. To provide a good quality
of service he needs to hire one employee if the expected monthly demand is greater than
80, but otherwise he can manage by himself. The monthly salary that the employee
makes is a random variable that is uniformly distributed between \$800 and \$2,000 (that is
in addition to the Yen300 labor and materials mentioned before).
How would you set up a simulation to determine how much Ichiro should charge (i.e.,
p) ?
Hint: you do not need to do any math in this problem, just describe briefly how to use
simulation to solve the problem.
Problem 3 (20 points)
The J-Mart department store has sampled 225 sales records on July 14. The average sale
was Yen4200, with an observed sample standard deviation of Yen3000 per customer.
(a) (10 points)
Construct a 90% confidence interval for the mean sale value.
(b) (10 points)
How many sales records would need to be sampled for the 90% confidence interval to be
within Yen100 of the sample mean?
Problem 4 (30 points)
GuardWare Inc. has installed intrusion-detection devices on the campus of a large
university. The devices are very sensitive and, on any given weekend, each one has a
10% chance of being mistakenly activated when no intruder is present. Assume that the
mistaken activation of different devices are independent events. Hint: remember the
assumption.
(a) (18 Points)
There are six devices in the Administration building. Assume there will be no intruder in
that building next weekend.
1. (6 points) What is the probability that no device will be activated next weekend?
2. (6 points) If two or more of the six devices in the Administration building are
activated during the same weekend, the system automatically signals the police. What
is the probability that this system will signal the police next weekend?
3. (6 points) What are the expected value and the standard deviation of the number of
devices (mistakenly) activated in the Administration building next weekend?
(b) (6 points)
There are a total of 200 such devices on campus. Assume there will be no intruder on any
of these locations next weekend. What is the probability that at least 22 of these devices
will be (mistakenly) activated? (Hint: use an appropriate approximation, and explain why
you may do so.)
(c) (6 points)
An intruder has a 5% chance of not activating the device located in the President’s office.
Campus police has obtained information about a student prank is in preparation and, as a
result, estimates that there is a 20% chance that an intruder will visit the President’s
office during next Holiday Day weekend. If this device is activated during that weekend,
what is the probability that there is an intruder in the President’s office

Do you want your assignment written by the best essay experts? Then look no further. Our teams of experienced writers are on standby to deliver to you a quality written paper as per your specified instructions. Order now, and enjoy an amazing discount!!

#### Looking for a similar assignment. Place your order for a similar paper now and have excellent work written by our team of professionals to ensure you acquire the best grades.

If you find it difficult to balance your work and your studies because you are overwhelmed by other responsibilities, you have come to the right place . With the help of our dependable and simple-to-use essay and research writing service, students are able to focus on work or non-academic-related duties that they are required to carry out and complete all their school work on time .

We assist students who are struggling with their academic endeavors by allowing them to obtain essay assistance from  professional essay writers. We are never late for a deadline. When you ask our writer to write your paper, the assignment can be completed in as little as 12 hours or as long as 2 weeks. The order’s deadline is entirely up to you.

Place an order of your assignment if you are in urgent need of assistance because your essay is due in a few hours/days or you do not know how to complete your professor’s academic assignment. We are here to assist you. You are guaranteed of high grades through our services.

#### How to Place an Order

When you want Premiered Tutorials to do your homework for you, you send the assignment details such as the instructions, due date/deadline, number of pages and college level to the customer support agent online on live chat,  fill in the assignment details at place an order or send the information to our email address premieredtutorials@gmail.com and a customer support agent will respond to you immediately.

Premiered Tutorials has competent writers to handle any of your assignments. Once you place your order, we choose for you the best and competent writer for your assignment based on each writer’s competence in handling a subject.

When the homework is completed, we have a quality assurance team that proofreads the assignment to ensure it meets the required rubric instructions from your professor.

After thorough review of your assignment, we send the paper to the client. In case you need any changes at this point, you can let us know so that we can handle it for you at no extra charge.

#### Why Premiered Tutorials?

If you need professional online homework help at a cheap price from professional and thoroughly vetted online homework helpers, reach out to the best homework help website, Premiered Tutorials.

Whether you are in high school, undergraduate, masters or PhD level, we have the best academic writers to assist you with your homework. We thoroughly vet all our online homework helpers to ensure they are competent to handle our clients’ tasks. Some of the requirements we have is ensuring that they are English Native speakers, have all attended colleges and had high grades in their undergraduate, Masters and PhD classes and have worked as academic writers and delivered high results.

We are a reliable and best essay writing website in the market. Our assignment help services or rather what our clients ask us to do for them include take my online class for me, order an essay cheap, pay someone to write my essay, help with my assignments, history homework help, college homework help, essay writing help online, answers for your homework, pay someone to do my homework for me, homework answers math, pay someone to take my proctored exams and nursing homework assignment help online. As the best website for homework answers, our homework doers also offer cheap essay writing services, online assignment help for all classes

• Law/ Criminal Law
• Nursing
• Information Technology
• Psychology
• Statistics
• Sociology
• History
• Communication
• Culture and Society
• Biology
• Astronomy
• Engineering

The courses indicated above are just but a small group of the types of classes Premiered Tutorials handles.

We have competent homework writers that can handle all academic disciplines regardless of the level of education of our clients.

When we do your homework for you, we write it from scratch to ensure you receive a unique paper. It also ensures that every homework we do for you is free from plagiarism and will help the client to get the highest grades in his or her classes. Any client who manages to consistently use our homework help services is guaranteed of always having the best grades and being one of the top students in the class because we always deliver the best quality for any homework we do for you.

When we complete working on your homework, we deliver the paper to you on time as we are well aware that the work we handle, is time sensitive. Timely deliveries of assignments help our clients get the highest grades because missed deadlines on assignments can result to deductions of marks for late submissions. Therefore, you will always be assured of quality online homework help through Premiered Tutorials whenever you ask us to do your homework for you.

#### Why we should write your Paper

1. Money Return guarantee
2. 0% Plagiarism Rate
3. Guaranteed Privacy
4. Written from scratch by highly qualified writers
5. Communication at Any Time (24/7)
6. Flexible Pricing and Great Discount Programs
7. Timely Deliveries
8. Free Amendments